Abstract：Study on the city's evolving model and its simulation is one of the most important fields of research on the theory, and methodology and applications of geocomputation founded and developed in the 1990s. In this paper, from a view of land use and development in a city, land in a city can be divided into three patterns of developed, new developing and applicable areas, and a full dynamic process of the city's sprawl and expansion can be simplified and described as a developing spectrogram consisted of growing to decreasing to newly developing from a seed, i. e. CBD of a city to its boundary areas.
Based on the idea and modeling method of the infected and spread mechanism of the epidemic, a spatial sprawl and growth model of city's development is established and put forward, a dynamic process described the city's spatial evolving is simulated and studied in the paper. In order to simulate and analyze the features of land use and development in different developing stages in a city, a lot of transformation patterns of the foundational model under some supposed conditions, which is applicable to a few real cities, is discussed. A computational framework for the spatial sprawl and growth model based on cellular automata is introduced and discussed.
After a discussion and analysis on the modeling and simulating results, a possible useful city's classification system making use the city's expansion features as main indicators have been put forward in the last section of the paper. These indicators include the growth rate of land use and development, the average time length of land development in practice and vacant rate of land used for the development in the end of the sprawl and growth process. The main purpose of the paper is to expand and develop the research and modeling methodology of the urban geography so as to offer the basis of prediction and controlling of urban development. Thus the development of geo-computation theory and methodology could take the research on urban modeling to a higher level.
刘妙龙, 陈鹏. 城市空间扩散增长模型与模拟[J]. 人文地理, 2004, 19(2): 6-11.
LIU Miao-long, CHEN Peng. A SPATIAL SPRAWL AND GROWTH MODEL OF THE CITY AND SIMULATION. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2004, 19(2): 6-11.
